Months of war, a naval blockade and widespread destruction have left Iran’s military and economy severely weakened. Its navy has been crippled, its air force largely destroyed, and key industries damaged.
Yet despite those losses, analysts say a new agreement with the United States could leave Tehran in a stronger financial position than before the conflict.
The proposed 14-point memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US includes sanctions relief, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, renewed oil exports and the creation of a major investment fund aimed at rebuilding the country’s economy.
While significant details remain unresolved ahead of the expected signing in Switzerland, the agreement could provide Iran with access to billions of dollars and restore crucial economic lifelines.
Oil Exports Set for Major Comeback
One of the most significant provisions would allow Iran to resume unrestricted oil sales, reviving the country’s primary source of revenue.
Analysts estimate Iran could export about 2 million barrels of oil per day under the agreement, roughly one-third more than it was selling before the war. Tehran would also be able to sell millions of barrels currently stored on tankers without offering the steep discounts it previously used to evade sanctions.
“This sounds like a pretty good deal for Iran,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Rystad.
Oil accounts for roughly half of Iran’s government revenue. For years, Tehran relied on a network of so-called shadow fleets to sell oil, primarily to China, while avoiding US sanctions. However, a US-led blockade in recent months largely halted those exports.
Under the agreement, the US Treasury would grant sanctions waivers allowing Iran to transport, insure and sell its oil while accessing proceeds through international financial institutions.
Market analysts caution that the impact could depend on how long those waivers remain in place. If they last only through the proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, some buyers may remain reluctant to enter the market.
Iran has already begun restoring exports. Maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers reported that the country shipped 3.8 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz this week after Washington agreed to end its naval blockade.
More than $100 Billion in Frozen Assets at Stake
The deal could also unlock more than $100 billion in Iranian funds frozen in foreign banks.
The agreement states that Iran’s frozen funds and assets would become fully available to its central bank, although the timing and conditions remain unclear.
Iranian analysts estimate that between $124 billion and $167 billion in assets remain inaccessible abroad. Some of the most readily available funds include approximately $12 billion currently held in Qatar.
US officials insist that any release of funds will depend on Iran meeting its obligations under the agreement.
$300 Billion Investment Fund Proposed
Another key component is a proposed $300 billion investment fund intended to help rebuild infrastructure damaged during the conflict.
US and Israeli strikes reportedly destroyed or severely damaged steel plants, petrochemical facilities and other critical industrial sites. Iranian authorities estimate total war damage at around $270 billion, though independent verification remains difficult.
The fund would reportedly be financed by private investors rather than US taxpayers.
President Donald Trump, speaking at the G7 summit, expressed skepticism about immediate investor interest.
“If they do it, fine,” Trump said. “But I would say they won’t be doing it for a while until they find out the behavior.”
Sanctions Relief Could Reshape Iran’s Economy
Broader sanctions relief could reconnect Iranian businesses and banks to the global financial system, enabling international trade and investment on a scale not seen in decades.
However, economists warn that many financial institutions may remain cautious without explicit guarantees from Washington.
“When there’s vagueness and ambiguity, banks are unwilling to take risks because many have been heavily penalized by US for doing business with Iran,” said Adnan Mazarei, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “And they’ll want assurances that this won’t just snap back.”
Any long-term easing of restrictions would represent a major departure from nearly five decades of US policy toward Iran.
Benefit to Ordinary Iranians
Economists say the agreement could help stabilize Iran’s economy, ease inflation and restore economic activity disrupted by the war and blockade.
Iran could use new funds to rebuild infrastructure, modernize its oil industry and restore internet services that were disrupted during the conflict.
Yet experts remain skeptical that ordinary citizens will see substantial benefits.
“Besides sanctions that have hurt Iran very badly, arguably the key problem in Iran is mismanagement and corruption,” Mazarei said.
Critics warn that without strong oversight, much of the new revenue could be diverted toward regional proxy activities and security operations rather than economic reforms that improve living standards.
As a result, while Iran suffered extensive military and economic losses during the war, the agreement’s financial provisions could ultimately leave the government with greater access to resources than it had before the conflict. Whether those gains translate into meaningful improvements for ordinary Iranians remains an open question.
